HSX predicts how much money these movies will make at the box office.
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – H$279.67
Remember Me – H$37.73
Bel Ami – H$18.66
This is how it works:
Because trading directly affects the prices of the securities — purchasing enough shares of a stock causes its price to rise, and selling causes its price to fall — and because the ultimate value of a movie stock is based on the film’s box office, stock prices act as box office predictions. For example, if a particular moviestock trades at “H$40.00″, the market is predicting that the movie will gross US$40 million at the box office in the first four weekends of wide release. In 2007, players in the Hollywood Stock Exchange correctly predicted 32 of the 39 major-category Oscar nominees and 7 out of 8 top-category winners. The Hollywood Stock Exchange is considered a good example of a prediction market.
From Twilight Britney Fan and HSX.com
You can read more about Hollywood Stock Exchange HERE. Pretty interesting stuff...
P.S.: It's too early to predict and/or buy stocks for Bel Ami. That's why the number is so low. It didn't even start shooting yet. Anything can happen...
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25 comments:
Hmmm...
I'm guessing that Remember Me is gonna make alot more than 37 million and if that's all that it makes, it will be seen as a box office failure.
I'm thinking that opening weekend alone needs to be in the 20 million range. If it comes in at 10 million or less, the film will probably not do so well.
And I'm not expecting a 100 million dollar hit either. Once the story is known, many will turn away from it...even if it's a great film.
Teri and Emily...
Did you see my post on the telethon thread? I did reply to your e-mails and thanked you and explained. I'm really sorry.
I think it will do very well. After all, Rob is in it, so my repeat visits will earn him a million alone! LOL
Yes. Rob's millions of fans are going to have to come out in droves for this one and I think they will.
It's gonna be a tough one though.
It's going to take the efforts of Rob's "true" fans, not his Edward fans to make the difference in this movie...
And Nik, I agree, once the "story" is known, there may not be repeat viewings by some.
I know a lot of Edward fans who don't know a thing about this movie, or show any interest...pity really...but you can lead a horse, etc, etc...
I for one will see this movie over & over until it leaves the theater...
I think Rem Me will make a lot more than what they are predicting. Bel Ami is probably about right, but Summit promoted the hell out of it during new moon and we all know ppl went for rob..and before you say for taylor; he wasnt anything special during twilight and the figures were only slightly higher for new moon. case being that rob is a force to be reckoned with. i think the industry really underestimates just how famous he is
I can not wait. I will see it over and over.
I hope that Rob's many fans support this movie. The better it does the more chances of Rob doing many more movies.
Oh...I will most definitely be going for repeat viewings...even if something bad happens...we must support The Pretty!!!
Well I'll support the film as many times as I can, I'm really behind Rob on this one.... it's important for him.
I don't know the storyline in detail and I don't want to, until I'm in the cinema.
So please, let's have a separate thread for spoilers and have everyone respecging that....
Actually $37-$40 is a reasonable guesstimate for a romantic drama with relatively little 'star' power, and a budget of around $20 m. For it to go higher, it will need to have good WOM. Rob’s b.o draw, not yet proven outside the franchise, will be measured with opening numbers. It should do biz worldwide as well, so its not dependent on domestic alone to be seen as successful.
Oh, I know the story, but I'm very interested in acting Rob, and I do think, he makes a good play. As he did in HA, in BMHB, in HTB, in LA. I love twilight and new moon, but don't forget his another films, he is a good actor! I will go to see RM more than once, 'cause films more better in cinema, as(?) on flatscreen.Huh, I've lost in english.
Well....
As I've said before I disagree with Nikola on this. RM and Bel Ami are not about putting up big box office $$$, as much as garnering some serious critical buzz.
Both movies have several serious craftsman actors that steer away from blockbusters: Chris Cooper, Lena Olin, Kristen Scott Thomas, Christina Ricci...
Rob has a great deal to learn from these projects and I think he'll great strides with his craft. Getting industry pros to acknowledge that is the real goal here.
Does anyone know if there's a tool on the blog that lets you locate your previous posts? I laid this out better in earlier thread...
Want to clarify that I don't disagree that RM needs to put in a sound showing, but I don't think it needs to be a strong money maker. Am going to repeat myself below, as I'm wondering if others agree, or not?
Rob doesn't seem interested in being a box office star, only in using box office clout to launch other more interesting projects. Of course money talks, and he needs success with the audience as well. But right now, he needs industry insiders to acknowledge his acting skills.
If RM does for Rob what Lumet's last film Rachel Getting Married did for Anne Hathaway, that will already be great. RGM only did world total of $17 million! Nice box office for RM would be the icing on the cake... but in my mind, not a must.
Yes, Rob has become a "movie star". But does he want to stay one? Does he care if his name alone can open films?
I'm really not sure he wants to stay in that spotlight, as much as we want to keep our eyes on him. I'm sure he could have chosen follow-up films with a much higher profile than Bel Ami and Unbound Captives.... but he didn't. And I for one am very, very glad.
This movie makes me nervous for a couple of reasons, both of which Loisada and Nik touched upon. I think it needs to accomplish both of those things to really "establish" Rob as an actor with cred and staying power. Honestly, I think his performance will be viewed favorably by critics. I think it's essential that he is taken seriously as an actor with true talent after this performance, and I think he will be. But the movie needs to do well enough financially for him to be considered for bigger roles in the future. I think he's still riding on enough momentum from the Twi-movies that fans will turn out to see him in something else, and I think they will be pleasantly suprised at what they see. At least I hope so! I have pretty high hopes that both of those things will happen...but as I said, I will be apprehensive until I see it happen.
@ Nik I'm with you, I think this movie will do more than 37m. There're soo many people want to go and watch this movie to see if Rob can actually "act"...even the haters!!
I know he can....
We have to show some power here. I have already done my part. All my nontwilight friends are coming with me. Gold class and all the gear. My twi-friends cannot wait too so we will try to keep the hipe as hight as can be.
I think ALL ROB'S FANS have to support him in this one because of his career, the robstens, nonstens, craptens and the no give a shit, all his fans have to show Rob their support and love in seing remember me several times.
Don't forget they are so many haters who want him to fail and they're waiting impatiently for this to come.
if we can break our hand in voting so he can win the sexiest man title, we can also show him our love in supporting remember me in full force.
if remember me do well then we can call our self true fans
I just want to compliment Biel on her video of the trailer! Beautiful job as always. :)
As I said, I don't think RM is going to pull in a 100 mil at the box office, but it MUST open well as that is what Hollywood really looks at these days...who can and who cannot open a film. This film is very important for him because Hollywood is trying to gauge whether he can open other films or if all this hoopla about him is strictly limited to Twilight.
Anne Hathaway was already an established star with such hits as the Princess Diaries and The Devil Wears Prada and so what she was looking for was critical acclaim, which she got with Rachel Getting Married. It didn't have to make a fortune.
Beyond Twilight, Rob is not established and like I said, Hollywood is going to be watching this one VERY closely on opening weekend. As for Bel Ami...
No. This will be seen as more of a period piece; think Valmont, Dangerous Liasions, Age Of Innocense, films like that in which there is usually not a big audience. With films like that, Hollywood is looking almost exclusively for critical acclaim. And as I said earlier, with this story and this cast, if they pull this off, this one could contend for awards, especially Kristen Scott Thomas. She was seen as robbed last year for a nomination for 'I've Loved You So Long' and her character in Bel Ami is the saddest and most heartbreaking. If she pulls it off, she could get a supporting nod for it. It's that kind of role.
And back to RM for a minute...
I'd have to disagree that a gross of 37-40 mil would be considered acceptable because this film will not be lacking in star power. They'll have the hottest young actor in the world who is currently headlining a franchise that has thus far brought in over a billion dollars worldwide at the box office, a former James Bond and in Chris Cooper, an Oscar winner and one of those rare character actors that audience is aware of and likes. This film has PLENTY of star power AND as it will be seen as more of a 'mainstream' film as oppose to Bel Ami, yes, I think much more is expected of it at the box office. It's a contemporary love story whereas Bel Ami is set in the 19th century.
RM needs some box office and Bel Ami needs some critical acclaim.
And Loisada...
My guess is that Rob does not want to become the 'next guy' in Hollywood, meaning, he's not really looking to become the next mainstream 'movie star.' Taylor is the one looking in that direction and he may very well pull it off.
I think Rob will be looking to go more the independent route and seek out those roles that would go against the mold that Hollywood would desperately love to see him in; that of the gorgeous, mainstream leading man. However...
On those occasions that he does make a mainstream film (as Remember Me is), that's when he's got to show some muscle at the box office to keep himself enough of a star to then go off and make the kinds of smaller films he wants. If through the years he can make 'some' money for the studios, then they'll help finance his 'artistic' goals.
If he makes nada for the studios beyond Twilight...he's on his own.
Nik, I think that’s a very sound assessment. Remember Me does have a TV sweetheart, a former James Bond and a love story, which should be enough to fill seats with people who may not be pulled in by the darker more complex side of the story. RM has solid box office potential. It could tap into the niche of thinking films for thinking women, where there’s a sad lack of good fare. Now enough men need to accompany them to theaters to make it a mainstream performer. And I agree that Rob needs to prove he can headline this type of movie to get the studios to bank on him in “side” projects of the more independent vein that interest him.
Bel Ami is the film that makes me truly nervous right now. It is a tremendous challenge for an untested actor. It will have other important male characters, but it is essentially “Nasty Rob and the Women.” He needs to turn in a deep and heated performance to make it work well. Nothing has really tapped into his potential like this, apart from Little Ashes. Luckily he’ll have KST at his side, and I’m sure she’ll help him dig in and bring out the most moving and truly gut-wrenching performance possible. (And I do think she was unfairly overlooked for LYFSL, and the critics will be very well disposed towards her next film.)
I still wonder how much box office muscle Rob needs to show right now. I imagine that Twilight has already given him the financial security he needs to live out the rest of his days in his hobohappy ways. He could just fade into the movie sunset and pursue music or other interests following his own agenda. But didn’t he say somewhere that he’d like to start his own production company? And I’m sure he’s come to enjoy the pleasures of fine hotels, first-class seats, relaxing vacations, etc. (And while we’re on that subject: Stewie you need to convince him to whisk you away to someplace romantic and completely secluded. I bet Brad would lend you his island, and George is going to owe Rob a favor after the telethon... so there will be plenty of private spots available. You both deserve it, so just do it! And forgive me for intruding on our private lives, but we hoors can’t help but dream!)
But lifting my mind back out of the gutter, if Rob wants to continue to work in The Biz, he needs to step up and become an even stronger industry player, which means making nice with the studios. I doubt he’s ready to go it alone at this point. Which means, as Nik says, he needs to start by fronting RM strongly and getting a solid opening. So to your marks, Robsessors, we need to fill those seats in March.
Gozde, mea culpa. We totally trounced the 6 line rule. But you killed this thread anyway toots by posting about Rob and Emilie. Chemistry talk pulls them in every time!
You write beautifully Loisada. I ramble on and on and don't seem to get to my point. But you just nail it.
And yes, RobKats...on this one we gotta put butts in seats and those films that make the real moola are those that have repeat viewings. He really needs this fanbase on this one as I'm discounting the Twi/Edward/tween crowd. I'm not counting on them at all. They just want their Edward and they don't want to see him loving someone other than Kristen onscreen.
This fanbase; us and others who appreciate the man and the actor and not just one iconic character that he plays, we gotta go out and buy the tickets...and drag anyone else we can think of along with us.
FILTM
Will be interesting to see if Remember Me does better than Valentine's Day, Welcome to Riley's and The Runaways........I'm sure it will.
FILTM!!!
By 'star' power I was referring to actors who are expected to open a movie, not just well-known or even great character actors. No denying Rob is 'hot' but I repeat, he has yet to prove he is in that category outside the Saga. Romantic dramas, with few exceptions, do not usually end up higher than the $50-60 mil range at most, even with more established stars as leads. RM could make that much wwide, however. If the studio was expecting much higher returns on this kind of genre movie, with the given budget, I think they are taking a punt. I’ve no doubt they are hoping that the fan base will respond, as we all are, but there’s no knowing at this point how much cross-over there is.
wow.. I never knew such a thing as the HSE even existed.
Verrrry interesting. Thanks Goz.
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